The failure of all efforts to find a diplom atic solution that satisfies th e parties to. For example, the complicated civil war and rise of isil in syria has led to massive refugee flows to europe, exacerbating the domestic economic, political, and. East, where army personnel are deployed in iraq and syria, both active conflict zones. Room for cooperation or prelude to greater conflict. The strategic interests and objectives that one party seeks to achieve are contrary. His research focuses on us foreign policy, middle east security, and religion and violence. On the other hand, a more forceful israeli confrontation of iran in syria could undermine the possibility of a stable syrian state thus paving the way for iran and its allies to fill the void. Historians will debate whether the united states could have made much of a difference to resolve the syrian conflict in its early years or whether the limited us help to the opposition. Currently, us interests in syria are represented by an interests section in the embassy of the czech republic. Armyand can be expected to do so for years to come, even if that. Syrias alliance with iran this is the fifth in a series of usipeace briefings on syria published by the institutes center for conflict analysis and prevention. In fact, the us has been largely ignoring wars in africa for a number of years. Perspective c orp at i n expert insights on a timely policy issue israels interests and options in syria larry hanauer d espite efforts by the united states, europe, turkey, and iraq to keep the syrian civil war contained within that. Core us interests now at stake in syria, obama says.
The three primary conflict dimensions of interest to u. The united states also seeks a peaceful resolution of the multifaceted conflict in syria in a manner that protects u. When deciding to use force in syria and iraq, provide military assistance to egypt, or pursue sustained highlevel initiatives to forge israelipalestinian peace, american leaders invoke u. When you want to understand the reality of international relationship and power games you need to do some things that may take you from hours of reading to years of analysis and understanding. It is necessary, thus, to determine what americas interests are in the syrian civil war, which. Hezbollah also operates in syria, but a substantial number of iranian advisers are also there, supporting the syrians. Authored by yoshiko herrera, andrew kydd, and fyodor lukyanov both the russian federation and the united states have strong interests at stake in syria,and these. A cheat sheet1 1 causes of the syrian civil war discontent with authoritarianism and assad familys long reign of power in syria since the 1970s syria is 74% sunni, but the assad family is part of a shia sect known as the alawites. Commercial and military interests in syria have solidified. Despite their alliance, russia has never had much influence over syrias policies.
Even if the united states were to provide more arms to the opposition groups, such weapons would likely end up in the hands of the islamic state or other anti u. Americas way ahead in syria institute for the study of war. The syria intervention plan is being pushed by oil. One of the focuses of irans power is lebanon, where iraniansupported hezbollah is based. Syrias alliance with iran united states institute of. Congressional debate over a military strike will focus on three national security concerns. Obamas failure is not in that he has refused to intervene, but that, after five years of war. Although recent steps by the obama administration have drastically increased the scope of the united states syria sanctions, the origins of the program go back to the political context that immediately followed the attacks of september 11 th on may 11, 2004, president bush signed executive order 338 implementing the initial salvo of sanctions on the syrian government. As the war in syria grinds on into its third year, support among the american public for more robust u.
April, 17, 2011syrian protesters shouts slogans calling for president bashar assad to. Countless times since, russia has vowed to replace what it sees as a coercive u. Priorities and interests the size of the refugee populations in syrias neighbors poses daunting logistical and. The united states established diplomatic relations with syria in 1944 following u. Putins power play in syria januaryfebruary 2016 107 foreign policy at the munich security conference.
A 1983 document part of a deluge of declassified papers released to the public signed by former cia officer graham fuller titled, bringing real muscle to bear against syria pdf, states their emphasis. Us, uk and france strike syrias chemical weapons program. Brian haggerty is a phd candidate in international relations and an affiliate of the mit security studies program. For this reason, amman has worked meticulously with the us and russia to bring about a settlement that could secure jordans interests pushing away irans shiite militias and radical groups from its borders. More information about syria is available on the syria page and from other department of state publications and other sources listed at the end of this fact sheet. Debating us interests in syrias civil war mit center. My work on these issues will result in a book on changing u. The united states continues to provide humanitarian assistance and nonlethal support to the opposition. One area where american and russian interests converge is maintaining a deescalation zone in southern syria. If it is solely for humanitarian purposes, the united states will abstain every day of the week. The us, uk and france launched strikes against targets at three sites in syria in the early hours of saturday morning, following a week of threats of retaliation for an alleged chemical weapons. Recent developments in syria and the middle east have focused american attention on a few considerations of obvious and urgent import, obscuring other considerations that. Violence has extended into iraq, lebanon, jordan, and israel and syrian refugees have fled to jordan, lebanon, and turkey, all compounding a growing risk of instability in an alreadyfragile region.
Aaron stein resident senior fellow, rafik hariri center for the middle east, atlantic council. Relations with syria united states department of state. Syria at present has a hammerlock on us interests both in lebanon and in the gulf through closure of iraqs pipeline. Subsequent phases will be necessary and will require a significant counteriranian component in iraq and syria. Radical islamist terrorism in its many forms remains the most immediate global threat to the safety and security of u. A syria at peace would become less of a breeding ground for islamic extremism and pose less threat to the outside world. The conflicts in syria, iraq and yemen cannot be resolved unless iran is at the negotiating table. What russia and iran have accomplished in syria is important for american national security interests and policy in the region because it frames some of the hard choices washington faces. Us interests are broader than keeping russia in check, and russian influence in syria is far from new.
Iranian influence, and decaying regimes require the involvement of the united states to include the u. Strategic interests in the middle east and implications for the army. The regions mix of violent extremism, malign iranian influence, and decaying regimes require the involvement of the united statesto include the u. Interests in syria, past and present hoover institution. Obamas references to the core national interests that would be threatened by the use or spread of chemical weapons in the middle east could be a sign that a decision on us action in syria is. These followon operations set conditions that favor broader us interests in syria, but they do not achieve those interests. The syrian civil war united states institute of peace. The time to turn the tide against assad is now, senator menendez said, the united states must play a role in tipping the scales toward opposition groups and working to build a free and democratic syria. It is not easy, so many will avoid this and keep with. Response since its start in 2011, the syria conflict has presented significant policy challenges for the united states. But experts are skeptical, and americans are wary of new. Critical junctures in united states policy toward syria. The west and irans overlapping interests in the middle easts security landscape have certainly contributed to a political environment in which officials in the us and the european union eu recognized the need to resolve the nuclear issue, and pursue efforts to work with the iranians to resolve the conflicts in iraq, syria and yemen.
A different and harder question is what can the us do now to secure its interests in. External events or perceived changes in the conflict that demanded a us response often propelled these decision junctures. For decades, consecutive us administrations pursued a foreign policy in the middle east designed to contain the islamic republic of iran. The costs of backing down in syria over assads use of chemical weapons and the likely costs of backing down in insisting that assad must go before negotiations can begin seem to me to be mostly domestic and political and smaller. States possesses few political, economic, or military interests in syria, but it does possess. In the nineteenth century, czarist russia began asserting its geo strategic, economic, religious, and cultural interests in the middle east as framed by its competition with the west.
Published in 2011 in the united states of america by the institute for the study of war. Doing so is the only way to stop the killing, end the flow of refugees to europe, and restore order. Toward a new us policy in syria washington institute. Russian and american interests in syria nuclear diner. Nor should the united states intervene or increase involvement in syria simply because russia does.
It is necessary, thus, to determine what americas interests are in the syrian civil war, which remain unclear. Moscow worked to build diplomatic and cultural ties, especially in syria and palestine, to create constituencies on which it could later rely for support. Martin dempsey, secretary of state john kerry and defense secretary. The united states second main interest is to end the civil war. A lot of realist commentators, most notably, stephen walt at harvard, claim that the united states has no vital interest at stake in syria. Usisrael predictably behind turkish aggression in syria. It looks like you have accomplished the seemingly impossible.
Russia the washington institute for near east policy. Some warn that the violence gripping the country could lead to another sept. One state and, of course, first and foremost the united states, has overstepped its national borders in every way, he warned. The us and irans common interests in syria fair observer.
Given that the united states has no vital interests at stake in egypt and syria, let alone the capacity for fixing the problems afflicting those. How to salvage us interests in syria fair observer. Foreign policy towards syria under the donald trump administration article pdf available november 2016 with 1,007 reads how we measure reads. The strategic interests at play in us debate over syria. Both the united states and russia seek to ensure a stable and unified syria, though the two countries disagree on how to achieve this. Syrias ongoing civil war has elicited a flood of policy recommendations from american observers, most of them based entirely on perceptions of immediate u.